Ten months into the new Aged Care Act, clear patterns are emerging. Drawing on Stewart Brown and KPMG data, Department reporting and our own client work, this presentation gives organisations a clear read on emerging market trends and the levers driving sustainable performance.

The presentation covers:

1. Compliance transition: largely handled well by standalone providers, while some residential and retirement living operators were less clear on the model’s increasing expectations and are catching up as audits intensify. For providers looking to buy, there will likely be more opportunities within these sectors.
2. Pricing: the most critical decision for organisations. Median hourly prices needed to rise around 40% at commencement, a structural change brought about by regulation. Many organisations were timid and are playing catch-up, having assumed they could simply reprice to the cap, only to find increases limited to two small rises per year. Pricing explains most underperformance, often through third party markups, minimum service durations and short-service policies.
3. Utilisation: package utilisation fell from 86.7% (six months to June 2025) to 76.8% (nine months to March 2026), and 62.2% in the March quarter, reflecting package ramp-up, co-contribution structures and churn in care management teams.
4. Margins: margins have been impacted, with much of the damage self-inflicted. Claiming systems have been leaky: IT delays, an unfamiliar care management time claiming process and many providers still behind on distributing budgets. Operating margin fell from $3.77 per client day in FY25 to $0.58, with a $0.46 loss in the March quarter, well short of investable levels.
5. Market fragmentation: NDIS pessimism and Support at Home optimism are pulling disability providers into the industry, Associate Providers are investing in registration and small entrants keep arriving. Investment in models, acquisitions, organic growth and new entries say organisations believe the model is investable, whatever margins show in the short term.
6. New business models: the model is proving flexible, with fixed-location and channel models emerging, while self-managed and franchise models continue to outperform.

We expect median performance to find equilibrium around pre-reform levels as teams master the new processes, utilisation recovers and pricing settles. The interesting question is whether increasing complexity will widen the gap between high and average performers, creating higher-profit opportunities for the top quartile.

Delegates will leave with practical insights for assessing their strategic options, with a read on where the market is heading to inform pricing, investment and growth decisions.