This session will show boards and executives how to turn demographic, utilisation, waiting-list, service-capacity and local population data into a viable strategy for a changing aged care sector. Delegates will leave with a framework for testing strategy against six historical trends that will shape the next decade, and a practical checklist of the information each provider needs to make deliberate choices about the communities they serve, service mix, capital allocation, consumer contribution and future capacity.

Setting a long-term strategy in 2026 requires providers to plan in an environment of genuine uncertainty. Funding models are changing, consumer contributions are increasing, workforce remains constrained and the economics of accommodation continue to challenge new investment. But uncertainty about policy should not be confused with uncertainty about demand.

The population that will shape aged care over the next decade is already visible. The first post-war baby boomers are now turning 80. Home care is typically accessed several years earlier than permanent residential care, meaning the demographic wave will not arrive across the system at the same time. Pressure is already evident in assessment and Support at Home, while the same demographic cohort will progressively drive higher residential demand later in the decade.

Supply will not automatically follow demand. Australia is projected to face a substantial aged-care nursing shortfall. Independent estimates indicate around 10,600 additional operational residential places are required each year, compared with recent delivery averaging around 1,470, while sector estimates suggest 60,000 to 90,000 existing places may require urgent refurbishment over the next decade. Given the time required to plan, fund, approve and build new capacity, waiting for demand to peak will be too late.

National averages also disguise local pressure. Population ageing, current service capacity and future demand vary materially between markets. Strategy therefore requires providers to understand not only how much aged care Australia will need, but where, when and in what form.

Boards cannot control future government policy, but they are accountable for the strategy they adopt in response. The leadership challenge is not to predict the future perfectly. It is to identify what is already known, make assumptions explicit, define the indicators that would change course, and act before the decision is made for them.